Planet Abell

How much power does it suggest when a black man wins a lilly-white state whose coronating power has been criticized because it is so unrepresentative of the country as a whole? Has it occured to institutional Republicans yet that seducing and then abandoning evangelicals might have created their worst nightmare: a populist they have already demonized but may have to back as the lesser of two evils -- first in their primaries and (heaven forbid) perhaps even beyond? Has either party establishment correctly identified that sound as repudiation, and do they know the color of new blood?

Obama wins with a materially significant number over Clinton. It is not a blowout; Clinton will frame her second-place as a victory of sorts and battle on indefinitely. Edwards is third and will be the first of the top tier to drop out, shortly after New Hampshire. Huckabee wins handily; it is seen as a rebuff to the Republican field in general and Robotman Romney in particular. But his victory is, in the long run, meaningless. The story becomes a very difficult set of numbers from which to extrapolate hope for any GOP candidate beyond New Hampshire. As the smoke clears, the Republican with the most reason to be optimisic, through only slightly, is McCain. That might be fleeting, since Granite State Independents seem to be breaking for Obama -- perhaps a precursor to the "Big Story" of the general election. Full disclosure: I was a McGovern volunteer and was shocked that he lost, and I also predicted a comfortable victory for Kerry. Maybe I'm due ...