Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Iowa Predictions, 2008

Obama wins with a materially significant number over Clinton. It is not a blowout; Clinton will frame her second-place as a victory of sorts and battle on indefinitely. Edwards is third and will be the first of the top tier to drop out, shortly after New Hampshire.

Huckabee wins handily; it is seen as a rebuff to the Republican field in general and Robotman Romney in particular. But his victory is, in the long run, meaningless. The story becomes a very difficult set of numbers from which to extrapolate hope for any GOP candidate beyond New Hampshire.

As the smoke clears, the Republican with the most reason to be optimisic, through only slightly, is McCain. That might be fleeting, since Granite State Independents seem to be breaking for Obama -- perhaps a precursor to the "Big Story" of the general election.

Full disclosure: I was a McGovern volunteer and was shocked that he lost, and I also predicted a comfortable victory for Kerry. Maybe I'm due ...

No comments: