Monday, January 7, 2008

New Hampshire Predictions, 2008

Obama will win convincingly. Hillary will place, pushing Edwards to third, but Obama's margin of victory will exceed his eight points over both in Iowa, and his near cornering of the market of self-described independents will be a dominant general election narrative.

Hillary will portray the loss as entirely media/momentum driven, citing the only five days since Iowa (she has already begun to put out the message that the race really beings in California).

Edwards, who has declared he is in the race through the convention, just needs to stay in the hunt, and he will. If he remains in the race much past New Hampshire it will only serve to emphasize Obama's claim as the more legitimate agent of change versus Clinton. The Democratic nomination is now Obama's to lose.

Still, for the superstitious, consider these facts:
  • One -- and only one -- modern-day candidate has lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and gone on to win the Democratic nomination and the presidency: Bill Clinton.
  • The last Democrat to win both Iowa and New Hampshire and lose the election: John Kerry.
McCain, getting Obama's seconds in Independents support, will win comfortably but not overwhelmingly, handing Romney his second early loss in as many outings, this time in a state which neighbors the one he governed. McCain is given comeback/insurgent status, but the Republican nominating process is far from certain.

Iowa victor Huckabee's distant third finish -- possibly in single digits -- reveals his fundamental lack of viability.

Romney will say that he is leading in the medal race, with two silvers (and Wyoming gold), and that the race really begins in Michigan anyway. He must win decisively in the Motor State, where his father governed but the Detroit Free Press prefers McCain, to be considered more than just a poseur trying to buy an election.

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