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Showing posts from January, 2008

You Be the Judge

The Fed cut, as reported this morning (emphasis added): NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Stocks headed for a slide at the open on Tuesday as fear of a recession gripped investors, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark U.S. interest rates by 75 basis points in a surprise intermeeting decision . NEW YORK ( AP ) - ... The Fed's move was unsurprising , given that world stock markets were falling precipitously the past two days, and that U.S. stocks had tumbled last week amid growing fears of a recession in the United States.

Explaining Away Polling Failure

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Joust Originally uploaded by _mpd_ L ots of humility today from pundits and pollsters about how wrong the New Hampshire polls were on the Democratic side -- from Chris Matthews soulfully telling Clinton's communications director "I will never underestimate Hillary Clinton again" to John Zogby 's instant analysis that "We seem to have missed the huge turnout of older women that apparently put Clinton over the top." In an interesting little item on the Huffington Post a commenter observes: "No one is talking about how the polls actually nailed Obama's number. Obama didn't lose this election. He stayed steady and Hillary surged ahead." Many narratives will be challenged in the coming days and will be replaced by other convenient narratives. Among the most curious, and none-too-subtle, is that the bulk of spot reporting appears to assert that Clinton's victory was a "surprise." This, even though there is no evidence that Clinton

Clinton wins N.H. primary: What a country!

Clinton wins N.H. primary - Decision '08- msnbc.com Sometimes, it's great to be wrong . Take that -- everyone! This is going to be a heck of an election. Strap yourselves in -- it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Change? I Invented Change!

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Whether you think the time for change has come or the time for come has changed , here are some definitions of that already overused word, thanks to the Googles : Become different in essence; losing one's or its original nature An event that occurs when something passes from one state or phase to another A relational difference between states; especially between states before and after some event; "He attributed the change to their marriage" Make or become different in some particular way, without permanently losing one's or its former characteristics or essence Switch: lay aside, abandon, or leave for another Exchange or replace with another, usually of the same kind or category A different or fresh set of clothes; "she brought a change in her overnight bag" C oins of small denomination regarded collectively; The balance of money received when the amount you tender is greater than the amount due wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn

New Hampshire Predictions, 2008

O bama will win convincingly. Hillary will place, pushing Edwards to third, but Obama's margin of victory will exceed his eight points over both in Iowa, and his near cornering of the market of self-described independents will be a dominant general election narrative. Hillary will portray the loss as entirely media/momentum driven, citing the only five days since Iowa (she has already begun to put out the message that the race really beings in California). Edwards, who has declared he is in the race through the convention, just needs to stay in the hunt, and he will. If he remains in the race much past New Hampshire it will only serve to emphasize Obama's claim as the more legitimate agent of change versus Clinton. The Democratic nomination is now Obama's to lose. Still, for the superstitious, consider these facts: One -- and only one -- modern-day candidate has lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and gone on to win the Democratic nomination and the presidency: Bill Clinton

Imagining a World Without Hillary

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N o, this isn't a cheap shot at perhaps the nation's first woman president. Nor is it a cheesy post-holiday attempt at "It's a Wonderful Life" humor. But I do wonder what role Bill Clinton would be playing in this election cycle if his wife wasn't running for president. And what he has in mind for the future. Bill loves to be known as the country's first black president. This is a tribute to his sincerity towards a voting block he doesn't treat like a voting block which turns out in disproportionately-large numbers for Democrats. This warmth is, I reckon, especially savored by a white child of the segregated south; when it came time for the post-presidential potentate to chose a base of operations Clinton landed in Harlem, a brother from another planet. Hillary has many plates she must keep spinning. Some are up there of her own doing, and some are not -- including the gender dish, where her passions are served up as evidence of imbalance in a way they

The Revolution is Being Televised

David Brooks once again distinguishes himself in the New York Times with a brilliant assessment of both the Republican and Democratic presidential races, making note of how rare it is for an "earthquake" to hit both parties at once as expressed by the Iowa victories of Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama. I’ve been through election nights that brought a political earthquake to the country. I’ve never been through an election night that brought two. Both victors are the youngest in their respective fields (Barack, 46; Mike, 52). Both are the most outsiderly of the viable candidates (with apologies to Kucinich, Paul and Gravel). It is a clear repudiation of the establishment, period. It may not be the final word, only a warning shot to be heeded by the wisely humbled -- witness Hillary's team-player, I-get-it concession speech -- but for now it is a shot heard round the world. Brooks makes great sense in handicapping both races. Huckabee, he says, is likely not the GOP standard

Iowa Caucus, Early Results

How much power does it suggest when a black man wins a lilly-white state whose coronating power has been criticized because it is so unrepresentative of the country as a whole? Has it occured to institutional Republicans yet that seducing and then abandoning evangelicals might have created their worst nightmare: a populist they have already demonized but may have to back as the lesser of two evils -- first in their primaries and (heaven forbid) perhaps even beyond? Has either party establishment correctly identified that sound as repudiation, and do they know the color of new blood?

Iowa Predictions, 2008

Obama wins with a materially significant number over Clinton. It is not a blowout; Clinton will frame her second-place as a victory of sorts and battle on indefinitely. Edwards is third and will be the first of the top tier to drop out, shortly after New Hampshire. Huckabee wins handily; it is seen as a rebuff to the Republican field in general and Robotman Romney in particular. But his victory is, in the long run, meaningless. The story becomes a very difficult set of numbers from which to extrapolate hope for any GOP candidate beyond New Hampshire. As the smoke clears, the Republican with the most reason to be optimisic, through only slightly, is McCain. That might be fleeting, since Granite State Independents seem to be breaking for Obama -- perhaps a precursor to the "Big Story" of the general election. Full disclosure: I was a McGovern volunteer and was shocked that he lost, and I also predicted a comfortable victory for Kerry. Maybe I'm due ...